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Research

Enveloping Supremex
Pursuing growth in a post-letter world.
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  • paywall
This net-net nanocap is being acquired, and the deal spread is huge (but complicated)
A special situation for tiny accounts.
  • Sample writeup
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Serial acquirer of local monopolies at 7% FCF yield, 32% annual BVPS growth for six years
Management has skin in the game.
  • Sample writeup
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This stock resembles Charlie Munger’s 2001 Tenneco investment that made him 8x his money
0.07x price-to-sales, 30% normalized and growing FCF yield, strips assets to pay down debt.
  • Sample writeup
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Nordfyns Bank second update
Congratulations to those who bought.
  • Sample writeup
Danish microcap bank with 60% upside, takeout likely on the horizon
A rerating waiting to happen.
  • Sample writeup
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Nordfyns Bank update
Unfolding quickly.
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Nordfyns Bank: merger deal’s off, setup isn’t
A voted-down merger with Fynske Bank paves the way for a higher takeout price.
  • Sample writeup
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Fairfax: no clues from the past
On what makes a great insurance company, Fairfax's historical transformations, investment slump, underwriting tailwind, hard vs soft markets, culture, incentives, run rate profits, and price-to-book.
  • Sample writeup
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Elevator companies
On the elevator oligopoly, the golden service market, economics of density, working capital benefits, innovation, China, and smart elevators.
  • Sample writeup
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Adobe + Figma
On Adobe's history, SaaS transition, creative monopoly, increased competition, Figma acquisition, and valuation.
  • Sample writeup
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Netcompany
On public tenders, company culture, European IT consulting markets, scale advantages, managing people, and M&A integration issues.
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Better Collective
On the affiliate model, sportsbook relationships, the history of Better Collective, acquisitive growth, the iGaming industry, regulatory opportunities, data advantages, and potential return.
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Adyen
On the payment ecosystem and its history, distributional strategies, the competitive positions of modern players like Stripe, Square, and Adyen, how Adyen is different from the two others, unified commerce, and a brief on the stock price.
  • Sample writeup
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Topicus
On how Topicus carries on Constellation's ethos, incentive systems, and strategy, whether it'll work, the company's value drivers, capital and ownership structure, challenges, and some thoughts on FCF yield.
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Constellation Software
On Constellation's trajectory as an HPC, the economics of a VMS, returns on capital, challenges in organic growth, the runway for M&A, the company's incentive system, and prospects for the use of FCF.
  • Sample writeup
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Disney: you’ve got a friend in streaming
On Disney's acquisitive history and digital transformation, how a shift to DTC shifts the economics of the business, and how I would value the company with the subscription business at focus.
  • Sample writeup
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Alibaba the octopus
On China's regulatory crackdowns, the history of Alibaba, the arms of the octopus, how Alibaba monetizes its ecosystem, the moat, how Alibaba could fail, how I would value the company, and a note on position sizing.
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